Israeli exit polls released Tuesday night showed neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot securing a parliamentary majority, leaving the country's next government uncertain and setting the stage for potentially difficult coalition negotiations.

Israeli election exit poll projections from five broadcasters show neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's bloc securing the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. An Israeli flag flies outside the Knesset in Jerusalem.
Exit polls from five Israeli broadcasters project a divided Knesset, with Netanyahu's bloc winning between 50 and 60 seats, Eisenkot's bloc between 43 and 53, and Arab-majority parties between 16 and 18. None of the projections gives either main bloc an outright majority, raising the prospect of difficult coalition negotiations.

Exit polls published by five Israeli broadcasters showed significant differences in the projected balance of power. Channels 11 and 13 projected Gadi Eisenkot's bloc winning 53 seats, Netanyahu's bloc 50 and Arab-majority parties 17. Channel 12 projected 52 seats for Eisenkot, 50 for Netanyahu and 18 for Arab parties. i24NEWS gave Netanyahu's bloc a stronger showing at 55 seats, compared with 49 for Eisenkot and 16 for Arab parties. Channel 14 projected Netanyahu's bloc winning 60 seats, Eisenkot's bloc 43 and Arab parties 17. None of the five projections gave either main bloc the 61 seats required for an outright parliamentary majority, leaving the formation of Israel's next government dependent on coalition negotiations and potential support from parties outside the two blocs.

What happens if neither bloc reaches 61 seats?

Under Israel's parliamentary system, voters elect parties to the Knesset rather than directly choosing a prime minister. Parties typically negotiate coalitions to secure a governing majority, but a bloc does not necessarily need 61 seats to take office.

Once official results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult the elected parties and select the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That candidate receives an initial 28 days to negotiate, with extensions of up to 14 additional days available.

One potential outcome is a minority government, in which the governing parties control fewer than 61 seats but secure enough parliamentary support to take office.

Unlike an outright majority coalition, a minority government can win its initial confidence vote with a simple majority of votes cast. Lawmakers outside the proposed government can support it without joining the coalition or can abstain, allowing it to take office even without 61 affirmative votes.

Under Channel 12's exit-poll projection, for example, a government supported by the opposition's 52 lawmakers could theoretically pass a confidence vote against Netanyahu's 50 lawmakers if the remaining 18 abstained.

Such an administration would still operate under Israel's parliamentary system. It would depend on outside parties to pass legislation, approve budgets and survive political challenges. A minority government is not a government operating independently of parliament.

For Eisenkot, the most plausible route to such an arrangement would involve support or abstentions from Arab-majority parties, particularly Ra'am and the Joint List, without necessarily including them in the cabinet.

That option faces significant political obstacles. Opposition figures, including Avigdor Liberman, have resisted forming a government dependent on Arab-party support, while Eisenkot has sought to build a coalition without formally partnering with those parties.

Another possibility is a broader unity government involving parties from opposing blocs, although Eisenkot has repeatedly ruled out serving under Netanyahu.

If negotiations fail, Israel could face another national election. Netanyahu would remain prime minister in a caretaker capacity until a new government takes office.

What comes next?

The exit polls suggest Netanyahu has lost the parliamentary majority his governing alliance secured in 2022, but they do not establish that Eisenkot will replace him.

The final seat distribution could still shift as ballots are counted, particularly because Israel's electoral system requires parties to receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament. Small changes around that threshold can alter the balance between competing blocs.

The election is Israel's first since the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and the wars that followed. Voters have also weighed Netanyahu's leadership, disputes over ultra-Orthodox military conscription and the country's security and diplomatic challenges.

Official results are expected in the coming days, with the final outcome of coalition negotiations potentially taking weeks or longer.

For now, the exit polls point to a fragmented Knesset in which the largest political bloc may not necessarily control the next government.