The United States and Israel are continuing preparations for potential renewed military operations against Iran, as Israel orders military-wide leave restrictions, American diplomatic missions issue coordinated security alerts across the Middle East, and senior defense officials hold further discussions. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday, October 19, initially reported by Axios and subsequently confirmed by Israeli officials. The developments follow weeks of American military repositioning and renewed discussions concerning another major campaign against Tehran.
On October 9, Keryex reported that President Donald Trump had privately decided to resume U.S. combat operations against Iran, according to sources familiar with internal administration discussions. The Pentagon has continued preparing military options while American and Israeli officials have discussed the possibility of another coordinated campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Hegseth’s meeting with Netanyahu took place at Ovda Air Base in southern Israel. Netanyahu’s spokesperson, Doron Spielman, subsequently confirmed that the discussions addressed regional threats and American-Israeli cooperation on offensive and defensive responses. While no decision to launch renewed operations was announced, the meeting follows earlier discussions between the two governments about potentially restarting large-scale operations against Iran.
On October 20, Netanyahu publicly reiterated his objective of overthrowing Iran’s government, warning that Tehran would attempt to rebuild its nuclear weapons capabilities and regional network of allied armed groups despite previous American and Israeli military operations. Speaking at Kiryat Shmona–Tel Hai University, Netanyahu declared that “the only way to prevent this is to topple this regime,” arguing that military strikes alone would not permanently eliminate the threat. He also confirmed discussing the removal of Iran’s leadership with Trump on multiple occasions, most recently on October 18. The statements come amid continued military preparations and heightened regional tensions, although Netanyahu’s warnings do not independently establish that Iran has resumed nuclear weapons production or that Washington has authorized a new offensive.
Israeli Military Activity and Heightened Readiness
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has also announced additional readiness measures ahead of the country’s October 27 parliamentary election. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir ordered a military-wide leave freeze beginning October 22, alongside additional deployments and an increased presence of senior commanders in operational headquarters. The directive cancels scheduled military leave across IDF units, requiring affected personnel to remain on base rather than depart for previously planned time off. The restrictions could remain in place through the October 27 election, subject to ongoing security assessments.
The IDF has placed its forces at the highest state of alert, reinforcing operational readiness across multiple commands while increasing ground deployments, particularly in the West Bank. The cancellation of leave is intended to maintain personnel availability, preserve operational strength and ensure units can respond rapidly to security developments without recalling soldiers from leave. Additional senior officers have also been directed to remain present in command centers to maintain oversight and coordination during the heightened alert period.
On October 20, Zamir said Israeli forces had reinforced defenses and troop deployments across multiple operational fronts to prevent external interference with the upcoming elections. The IDF has described these measures as precautions intended to ensure the elections proceed safely, rather than preparations explicitly connected to an offensive against Iran. Nevertheless, the restrictions increase the military’s immediate personnel availability during a period of heightened regional tensions and continued American-Israeli defense coordination. The measures alone do not establish that an offensive operation has been authorized or scheduled.
An eyewitness who requested anonymity told Keryex that they observed repeated waves of aircraft traveling eastbound on October 18. The witness described 14 waves in total, with the movements continuing for approximately 23 minutes after their initial observation. They subsequently described the activity as a simulated Israeli Air Force operation approaching Iran’s border, although we have not independently verified the aircraft involved, Keryex has verified the destinations or the reported purpose of the activity.
These developments follow previously documented movements involving American EA-37B Compass Call electronic-attack aircraft, KC-135 aerial refueling tankers and C-17 strategic transport aircraft. Such assets would provide capabilities relevant to a renewed air campaign, including electronic warfare, extended aircraft range and logistical support. Their movements are consistent with preparations for sustained military operations, although their individual missions have not been independently linked to a planned attack against Iran.
U.S. Security Alerts and a Recurring Pattern
Further indications of heightened regional concern emerged on October 18, when American diplomatic missions across the Middle East issued coordinated security alerts through channels including the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP). The warnings advised Americans to exercise heightened vigilance, prepare for possible airspace closures and flight cancellations, and remain alert to threats against American interests. The notices specifically cited Iranian-backed Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and warned that hostilities could spread beyond their current geographic areas.
Keryex has previously examined the timing of State Department security communications during periods of heightened American military preparations. Our analysis has identified a recurring pattern in which the Trump administration updates its regional security guidance through embassy communications and STEP alerts while potential military action is being considered. Similar warnings were distributed on October 8, immediately before our reporting on Trump’s private decision to renew operations against Iran.
The sequence warrants attention because consular security guidance can provide a public indication of how Washington is assessing the risks facing American citizens and facilities. However, STEP alerts are precautionary communications rather than formal changes to military policy, and their issuance does not establish that offensive operations have been authorized. The latest warnings also have an immediate explanation in the continuing Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, making it important not to attribute them exclusively to preparations involving Iran.
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