Flight-tracking data reviewed by Keryex indicates that U.S. forces may have possessed advanced intelligence concerning Iranian maritime activity near Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, where a commercial tanker was attacked by a small boat armed with an RPG on October 16. U.S. KC-46 Pegasus aerial refueling aircraft 22-46099 began operating northeast of Al Jubail just 27 minutes before the attack, following an earlier routine mission near the Strait of Hormuz. Our assessment is that the attacking vessel was likely Iranian and that the aircraft's positioning was consistent with intelligence-informed military preparations. The second sortie also suggests that Al Udeid Air Base maintains refueling assets capable of rapid-response operations, although a direct connection to the attack remains unconfirmed.

Timeline of Events (UTC):

02:07–07:37 — Aircraft 22-46099 conducts its routine Strait of Hormuz mission.

18:07 — Departs Al Udeid Air Base for a second mission toward the Gulf.

18:55 — Enters a refueling pattern northeast of Al Jubayl.

19:22 — A small boat attacks a commercial tanker with an RPG off the Saudi coast, near Al Jubayl.

22:00 — Refueling pattern concludes.

23:00 — Aircraft returns to Al Udeid Air Base.

It remains unclear whether U.S. forces participated in any kinetic action during the incident.

UKMTO notice regarding attack on the aforementioned tanker

UKMTO Notice Regarding Attack on Tanker Near Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia
A UKMTO Notice regarding the boat launched RPG attack on tanker vessel near Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia.

Flight tracking data of aforementioned refueling aircraft

Flight Path of US Mid-Air Refueler Aircraft Near Al Jubayl
The flightpath of a U.S. KC-46 mid air refueling aircraft while it performed a rapid response sortie over Al Jubayl just 27 minutes before an attack on a tanker vessel nearby. Flightpath obtained though FlightRadar24.