A Russian military satellite maneuvered close to a commercial radar satellite that supplies imagery to Ukraine in October, raising concern about the vulnerability of spacecraft that support military operations. Two related Russian satellites are now moving into positions that could allow them to approach a second satellite operated by Finnish company ICEYE.

The Russian spacecraft, Cosmos 2612, closed a gap of hundreds of kilometers over several days before maneuvering around ICEYE-X36 and remaining nearby. Dutch satellite tracker Marco Langbroek identified a close pass early Oct. 18 from public orbital data. Estimates of the minimum separation vary, and Langbroek cautioned that the data could not pin down an exact distance.

Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR who tracked the spacecraft, said the encounter “looks like an attack rehearsal.” He said the close pass suggested Russia could be testing its ability to carry out a physical attack in orbit. Germany’s space commander, Maj. Gen. Michael Traut, told Reuters that similar maneuvers could be used for inspection, observation or interference and that public orbital data alone could not establish the purpose.

Gillinger said Cosmos 2612 subsequently moved about 400 kilometers (250 miles) away. He and U.S. tracking firm COMSPOC told found that two spacecraft from the same Russian launch were becoming better positioned to approach ICEYE-X37. Both ICEYE satellites are registered in the United States. Ann Stevens, who leads ICEYE’s U.S. operations, said that X36 remains productive.

Why the radar satellites matter to Ukraine

ICEYE’s satellites use synthetic aperture radar, which can produce images through cloud cover and at night. That gives Ukraine a way to monitor sites when clouds or darkness limit conventional satellite photography. In August 2022, ICEYE signed a deal with the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation giving Ukraine’s government use of a dedicated satellite over the region and access to imagery from the broader constellation. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry later announced a separate arrangement with Rheinmetall and ICEYE for high-resolution radar imagery.

Russia warned at the United Nations in October 2022 that commercial space infrastructure used for military purposes could become a target for retaliation. The October encounter followed months of activity near X36. Russia launched Cosmos 2612 and five other spacecraft in April, and several moved into the same orbital plane as X36 in May, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Matching another satellite’s orbital plane can take substantial fuel, but once aligned, a spacecraft can move closer with less additional fuel.

The United States has raised concerns about Russian spacecraft operating near other satellites before. In 2020, U.S. Space Command said a different Russian satellite, Cosmos 2543, released an object near another Russian spacecraft in what the command assessed was a test of an orbit-based anti-satellite weapon. The tracking reports on the October encounter establish a close approach. Whether Cosmos 2612 carried a weapon or rehearsed using one remains unverified.